China's State Council Taiwan Affairs Office Director Visit to Washington DC

Reliable sources indicate that Ambassador Wang Yi (王毅), head of the Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), is scheduled to visit Washington DC the week of June 22nd. The TAO (国台办) is an administrative, ministry-level institution in charge of Taiwan affairs under the State Council – China's cabinet. Wang’s visit, one year after assuming the position as TAO Director, comes closely on the heels of the highly publicized visit of KMT Chairman Wu Po-hsiung to China, a major follow-on round of SEF-ARATS talks in Nanjing, and unsubstantiated reports of meetings between Taiwan National Security Council (NSC) Secretary General Su Chi and officials in Washington DC.

Background

Born in 1953, Wang Yi is a professional diplomat, former Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, and former ambassador to Japan. Wang Yi’s wife is said to be the daughter of Qian Jiadong, foreign affairs secretary to Zhou Enlai and PRC Ambassador for Disarmament Affairs in Geneva. During his tenure as Vice Foreign Minister between 2001 and 2004, Wang was intimately involved in the North Korea Six Party Talks and frequently traveled to Washington. Hu Jintao’s appointment of Wang Yi to serve as ambassador to Japan was viewed as a significant upgrade in Beijing’s relations with Japan, given the fact that Vice Minister-level authorities are normally assigned to countries sitting on the UN Security Council. His assignment to lead the Taiwan Affairs Office a year ago also has been viewed as a sign of Hu Jintao’s desire to avoid problems on his watch, particularly in managing Taiwan’s maneuvering for greater international space.

In June 2008, Wang replaced Chen Yunlin, who had been in the position for more than a decade. Chen was appointed as the chairman of the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS). TAO visits abroad are a standard aspect of China’s diplomatic initiative to bring the world around to its way of thinking. They also offer an opportunity for U.S. officials to express their views regarding Taiwan and cross-Strait relations. Wang Yi’s predecessor, Director Chen Yunlin, is said to have visited Washington, D.C. in February 2004, January 2005, and September 2006, and April 2007. TAO deputy director and ARATS vice chairman Sun Yafu is said to have visited New York and San Francisco in January 2007. TAO deputy director Li Bingcai visited Los Angeles in July 2006; and Deputy Director Wang Zaixi visited Japan in April 2006 and New York in November 2005.

Wang himself is no stranger to Washington. From August 1997 to February 1998, Wang was a visiting scholar at Georgetown University and he visited a number of occasions to discuss North Korea-related issues while Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs.

The Wang Agenda

Assuming rumors of his visit are true, what could be on Ambassador Wang Yi’s agenda? Most obvious would be to safeguard Beijing’s interpretation of the “one China” framework, brief senior officials in Washington on positive trends in cross-Strait relations, and influence the views of new Obama administration appointees in the run up to a possible Taiwan policy review. Wang’s talking points likely will cover U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, specifically the issue of a potential follow-on sale of F-16 C/D aircraft as well as the unresolved submarine and UH-60 BLACKHAWK Congressional notifications. With his leadership in Beijing increasingly confident in its relative position in the bilateral relationship, one shouldn’t discount a putting a marker down that outlines consequences of any further arms sales.

A Taiwan Policy Review: Past and Present

Ambassador Wang’s visit also will be taking place as senior officials get settled in to their new positions and start to develop an interagency consensus on cross-Strait policies. Taipei Times carried an article in April saying "Washington may soon launch a new Taiwan Policy Review that could have an enormous impact on bilateral relations." Senior Congressional sources were noted as saying that a "formal review is being considered by the Obama administration but that no decision has been made." The article also highlights a Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) piece in which China specialist David Shambaugh asserts that there is a “growing discussion” in Washington of the need to undertake a thorough Taiwan Policy Review “given the dramatic and positive changes in cross-strait relations.” The article notes that a policy review was conducted in 1979 and again 15 years later in 1994. Then by extension, another 15 years down the road, it's time for another one.

A Taiwan policy review -- or a China policy review with Taiwan as a subordinate issue -- is normal with a changeover in political power in Washington. Reviews took place in 1961 with the new Kennedy administration, in 1969 with the incoming Republican administration under Richard Nixon, in 1977 with new Carter administration, 1981 with the incoming Republican administration, 1993 with the Democrat administration, 2001 with the Bush administration, and probably with the new Obama administration. In most cases, key issues for interagency review include the form and substance of relations with both the PRC and Taiwan, with a heavy emphasis on defense relations, including arms sales.

-- Kennedy Administration. In 1961, the new Kennedy administration evaluated dual diplomatic recognition of the ROC and the PRC;

-- Nixon Administration. Less than two weeks after his inauguration in January 1969, President Nixon signed National Security Study Memorandum 14 (NSSM-14), which directed an interagency policy review of US policy toward the Republic of China (ROC) and the PRC be completed by 10 March 1969. This review established the groundwork for the opening of relations with the PRC and the President's visit to China in February 1972;

-- Carter Administration. A policy review initiated in June 1977 culminated in the 1979 switch in diplomatic recognition from the Republic of China (ROC) to the PRC, abrogation of the 1954 US-ROC Mutual Defense Treaty, and implementation of the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA);

-- Reagan Administration. During its first 18 months, President Reagan's interagency team appears to have been absorbed with China issues. An initial initiative appears to have been an interagency review on arms sales policy toward China, which was the key deliverable during the first principal-level visit to Beijing in June 1981. Eventually, the Taiwan arms sales issue came to a head and was temporarily resolved with the 1982 Communique. In 1982, the U.S. and ROC began annual Arms Sales Talks in which Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense presented its list of requested items for U.S. review;

-- Clinton Administration. The Clinton administration is said to have initiated an interagency Taiwan policy review about two months after inauguration. Eighteen months later, Assistant Secretary of State Winston Lord proclaimed that the "lengthy, detailed interagency policy review that we have conducted is the first of its kind launched by any administration of either political party since we shifted recognition to Beijing in 1979." The reality, however, is that the review was more cosmetic than substantive, presumably to ward off Taiwan supporters in Congress as the administration began to restore military to military relations with the PLA. The Clinton administration raised the cap on US government officials able to visit Taiwan, including a relaxation on military officer travel, and also changed the name of Taiwan's representative office in Washington;

-- Bush Administration. In 2001, a Taiwan policy review resulted in the release of a number of key weapon systems, elimination of the annual arms sales talks, and a general deepening and broadening of defense relations. Instead of submitting requests for defense articles and services through the annual arms sales talks forum, Taiwan MND was able to send letters of request at any time of the year.

The Obama Administration Taiwan Team

An Obama administration Taiwan policy review would likely be centered at the Assistant Secretary level, overseen by Kurt Campbell at the State Department, LTG (ret) Chip Gregson at DoD, and Jeff Bader on the National Security Council staff (see previous post for background info). Kurt's nomination was announced on April 24, 2009, while LTG (ret) Gregson's was announced on April 20th. Yesterday's (4 June) Nelson Report indicated that Kurt's Senate Foreign Relations Committee Asia Subcommittee hearing is set for 9 June, and that a full committee vote could come as soon as 16 or 17 June.

At the Pentagon, Derek Mitchell serves as Gregson's principle deputy, although his specific portfolio isn’t clear yet. Given the fact that Afghanistan may absorb a significant portion of LTG (ret) Gregson’s time, one could speculate that Mitchell may play a more active role on China/Taiwan issues than his predecessors.

Michael Schiffer has assumed the position as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (DASD) for East Asia. Under the guidance of LTG (ret) Gregson and Derek Mitchell, he'll be directly overseeing the development and execution of defense policy toward Taiwan, as well as the PRC, Japan, and the Korean peninsula. Since 2004, Michael has been at the Stanley Foundation. From 1995 to 2004, Schiffer was a senior staffer for US Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA). He was most recently in Taiwan in December 2008 for a conference co-hosted by the Washington DC-based Brookings Institute and Taiwan's Epoch Foundation. Michael Turton did an excellent write up of the event, as did J. Michael Cole.

Other positions likely to have an input on Taiwan issues include Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics (OSD/AT&L) Ashton Carter. Together with former Secretary of Defense Bill Perry, Kurt Campbell, and others, Ash Carter has been involved in Stanford-Harvard Preventative Defense Project and was in Taiwan last year just after the inauguration of President Ma Ying-jeou. Evan Medeiros is rumored to be the pick to serve as deputy for China/Taiwan under Jeff Bader on the National Security Council staff. For trade issues, Tim Stratford remains the Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for China (and Taiwan) Affairs at the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). Who will fill the AIT Taipei Director position remains an open question, although Bill Stanton, currently the DCM at the US Embassy in Seoul has been rumored to be one candidate.

Final Ramblings on the Triangular Relationship

Neither Ambassador Wang’s visit nor a Taiwan/China policy review is likely to come up with much new in the triangular relationship. However, it could be interesting to “liberate thinking,” as Beijing is fond of saying, and assess how a more active U.S. cross-Strait policy could make a difference. An enduring resolution of cross-Strait political differences is unlikely barring Beijing’s acceptance of Taiwan’s nascent democracy, including the prospect of a return to power of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and accepting the principles upon which it was founded. Beijing seems to fear the re-emergence of a Taiwan-centric political party, like the DPP, during national elections on the island in 2012 or 2016. Beijing’s subtle cross-Strait and foreign policy seems to be geared toward strengthening the KMT’s position in its domestic political competition. If this is an accurate assessment, it seems pretty shortsighted. Beijing could try to internalize its own propaganda regarding innovation and “liberal thinking.”

The most enduring solution could be for key opinion leaders within Beijing’s hardline camp and key opinion leaders with Taiwan’s independence movement to take a trip to Palau, exchange bottles of Kaoliang and Maotai, crack them open over a private dinner, come up with mutually acceptable arrangement, then hit an upscale KTV to top off the evening. I’m only half-joking here. But there are an infinite number of creative solutions that the two sides could come up with, if the two sides really wanted to resolve their differences. Or maybe it’s that the two sides can’t because of domestic political dynamics. This is where the U.S. may have a role to play. The Obama administration could help to create an environment in which more liberal thinking could take place, especially in Beijing.

U.S. policy, guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, has helped to keep the peace for 30 years. With this in mind, the attitude seems to be “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” However, let’s look at it in a different way. Significant portions of the annual defense budgets of the United States (U.S. $515 billion in 2009), the PRC (declared budget of U.S. $70 billion in 2009), and Taiwan (U.S. $10 billion) are driven by planning scenarios involving possible PRC use of force against Taiwan. When significant resources have to be dedicated to prevent a crisis, then something is broken. Put simply, the so-called status quo carries a significant price tag. But it seems to be a price that mainstream, status quo-bound political leaders in Washington, Beijing, and Taipei are willing to accept.

To sum up, will Ambassador Wang Yi’s visit resolve anything? The answer is probably no. But it’s fun to liberate one’s thinking sometimes and consider the possibilities.

The Obama Taiwan Team Starting to Shape Up

For those interested in U.S.-Taiwan relations, get ready for a breath of fresh air. The Nelson Report and other publications have been offering glimpses into who could be directing U.S. policy towards Taiwan and the rest of the Asia-Pacific region. If some of the key names being floated turn out to be true, then the Obama administration’s Taiwan policy team could be almost as strong as the one that opened the Bush administration.

Kurt Campbell. The stars center on Dr. Kurt Campbell as Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs. Kurt has been one of the strongest supporters of U.S.-Taiwan relations, and is the father of the transformation in bilateral defense relations in the late 1990s. He’s traveled to Taiwan on numerous occasions, and understands the issues and the people. He was an occasional contributor to the Taipei Times. During his four year tenure in the Pentagon’s top Asia job, Kurt often was viewed as the strongest Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense since the legendary Richard Armitage served in the position in the 1980s. After having to coordinate the U.S. response during the 1996 Taiwan Strait missile crisis, Kurt made it his mission to deepen and broaden U.S.-Taiwan defense relations, including opening new avenues of dialogue between the two defense establishments.

Brilliant, passionate, and creative, Kurt knows how to heal an organization from the ills of bureaucratic inertia. And since the departure of Deputy Secretary Armitage, Assistant Secretary James Kelly, and Deputy Assistant Secretary Randy Schriver in 2005, the Department of State (and Taiwan) has needed someone like Dr. Campbell. As an aside, his spousal unit is Lael Brainard, who is rumored to be a candidate for a senior economic position at State or the Office of the US Trade Representative.

After leaving the Pentagon in 2000, Kurt assumed a senior position at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). In February 2007, he and Michele Flournoy, who has been announced as the Obama administration’s Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, started up the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). The all-star cast making up the CNAS board of directors and advisory board includes Bill Perry, Madeleine Albright, Rich Armitage, Bill Lynn (Deputy SecDef designate), Richard Danzig (see below), ADM (ret) Denny Blair (Director, National Intelligence designate), LTG (ret) Chip Gregson (see below), John Podesta, Randy Schriver, Jim Steinberg (see below), Ash Carter, Jim Thomas, and Michael Green among others. With so many CNASers heading back into government, it’s unclear what form the organization will take in the future.

Jim Steinberg. Kurt will be working for Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Deputy Secretary Jim Steinberg. While Hillary doesn’t have much experience in Taiwan, Steinberg was involved in a number of Taiwan-related policy issues during his time as Deputy National Security Advisor from 1996 to 2000, and has maintained channels of communications with interlocutors from Taiwan since leaving government. Since 2006, Steinberg has headed Texas University’s LBJ School of Public Policy and seems to have a soft spot for the underdogs. The other key position will be the Deputy Assistant Secretary responsible for China/Taiwan affairs, which likely would go to a career State Department foreign service officer.

Chip Gregson. At Department of Defense (DoD), the State Department bureaucracy has been in charge of managing defense policy toward China and Taiwan since the departure of Richard Lawless in 2006. As a result, Taiwan has been relegated to the back benches over the last couple of years. However, the appointment of LTG (ret) Wallace “Chip” Gregson as Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian & Pacific Affairs would be almost certain to restore dignity in the U.S.-Taiwan defense relationship. In overseeing the defense component of the bilateral relationship that has traditionally figured prominently, a Campbell-Gregson combo would be powerful. LTG Gregson served as Kurt Campbell’s director for Asia-Pacific Affairs between 1998 and 2000. In that position, he cleared the path for a number of Taiwan-related Pentagon initiatives.

Marine Commandant Jim Jones (designated as Obama’s National Security Advisor) brought LTG Gregson back to the Marines to serve as a division commander then III MEF Commander in Okinawa, and finally as Marine Forces Pacific Commander. Since retirement, he is said to have maintained links with Taiwan’s defense establishment as an informal advisor, along with ADM (ret) Denny Blair. A Naval Academy grad (class of ’68), Gregson did a brief stint with the U.S. Olympic Committee after retirement from the Marine Corps in 2005.

Richard Bush. Another leading figure should be (hopefully) Richard Bush. As one of the few true American Taiwan academic specialists, Richard would be ideal to serve as AIT Director. No word yet if this is the case or not. But if the post in Taipei needs to be filled, Richard’s the man. Quiet and thoughtful, he previously served as AIT Chairman in Washington (actually Rossyln, VA) from 1997 until 2002, a position in which he worked with Dr. Campbell, Jeff Bader, LTG Gregson, and Derek Mitchell, and performed with distinction and finesse. Before his AIT service, he was National Intelligence Officer for East Asia. He also supported Rep Steve Solarz' campaign for Taiwan democracy in the 1980s. Richard’s Untying the Knot is one of the best books ever written on Taiwan’s political environment, cross-Strait relations, and U.S. interests in Taiwan. He’s currently senior fellow and director of the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution.

Having said all this, hats are off to Steve Young for his outstanding work at AIT Taipei. He’s been a saving grace in a Bush administration that seemed inclined toward throwing Taiwan under the bus. Steve has been an advocate for fairness, and a promoter of U.S. interests in Taiwan’s democratic consolidation.

Derek Mitchell. Rounding out the Obama Taiwan team could – should – be Derek Mitchell. Shaped by his experience as a Ted Kennedy staffer, Mr. Mitchell was active in Taiwan democracy issues as a young man, and worked for Dr. Campbell and LTG Gregson as a strategic planner and senior country director for China/Taiwan. At CSIS for the last eight years, he traveled to Taiwan on a frequent basis, and managed a highly successful annual seminar for Taiwan military officers, similar in nature to the general officer CAPSTONE course. Before joining the Campbell team in the Pentagon in 1997, he promoted democracy programs for the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs in Washington, D.C. Derek spent 1989 working in Taiwan as an editor of a local English-language newspaper, and is married to the beautiful Min Lee, who grew up in Taiwan.

Jeff Bader. Senior coordinator for Taiwan-related interagency policy development is said to be Jeff Bader. He’s been named to replace Dennis Wilder as the Senior Director for Asian Affairs on the NSC Staff. A career State Department officer and former NSC Asia Director under Sandra Kristoff and Ken Lieberthal in the 1998-2000 timeframe, Bader has been the Obama campaign’s Asia coordinator. He’s been strong on Tibetan issues, and presumably should be a proponent of Taiwan’s democratic consolidation. Regardless, he should bring stability and consistency to the table. Bader also has served as ambassador to Namibia and as a senior USTR official, he led the negotiations with China and Taiwan for WTO membership. He’s been Brookings’ China Initiative director over the last few years. He holds a PhD from Columbia in European history.

Others who played a role in the Obama campaign and thus possible candidates for Asia positions could Richard Danzig, Frank Januzzi, Mike Lampton, Evan Medeiros, Frank Levine, Bob Kapp, and Kevin Nealer. At one time, Danzig was touted as a candidate for Deputy Secretary of Defense. After stepping down as Secretary of the Navy, Danzig made a beeline for Taiwan, where he was given a intensive week-long course. Another potential candidate for a senior political-military position in the future, and one well known and respected in China/Taiwan circles, is LTG Karl Eikenberry. Senior country director for China/Taiwan under Kurt Campbell until 1997, Defense Attaché in Beijing, PACOM J-5, and Commander, Combined Forces Command in Afghanistan, LTG Eikenberry is currently Deputy Chairman of the NATO Military Committee.

In short, there’s reason for optimism with the new Taiwan policy team. One should not expect moves toward revival of the U.S.-ROC Mutual Defense Treaty, a push for U.N. recognition, or sudden jump in arms sales. On the former, officials in the Obama administration will find that programs they started eight years ago – such as the large phased array UHF radar (Surveillance Radar Program) and Link-16 (aka “Posheng”) – are still on-going after eight years. Congressional notifications for two major multi-billion dollar programs – UH-60 BLACKHAWK utility helicopters and initial design study for a diesel electric submarine program – are still frozen and unresolved. Letters of offer and acceptance (LOAs) on systems that were notified last year – PAC-3 in particular – are held up due to unexpected and sudden rise in the U.S. price, and the US Navy has yet to get the ball rolling with the refurbishment of Taiwan’s P-3C maritime patrol aircraft So with so many unresolved issues connected with on-going programs, one shouldn't expect a lot of enthusiasm for approving a follow-on buy of F-16s. Now working with Taiwan on the transfer of a very short take off and landing (VSTOL) design for a cooperative industrial project or examination of release of a VSTOL variant of the F-35 down the road? May be a different story…More on this another time.

Regardless, the new team will bring stability and respect to a U.S.-Taiwan relationship that has suffered from neglect over the last four years. The results may not manifest themselves easily to the outside world, and are likely to be nuanced. And the inner workings of the machinery are likely to run much smoother than has been the case over the last four years.